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Fact-Checking Obama on That Job Count

President Barack Obama speaks during a prime time news conference in the East Room of the White House on April 29, 2009. (Official White House Photo by Chuck Kennedy)In President Barack Obama's news conference on Wednesday night, he said the $787 billion economic stimulus bill has already created or saved over 150,000 jobs. We decided to find out how the president arrived at that figure.

The simple answer: guesswork.

It turns out the feds don’t have a way to measure exactly how many jobs have been created or saved, so they use projections instead, and it's all rather academic.

The new estimate, like the original one predicting the stimulus bill would save or create 3 to 4 million jobs, came from the Council of Economic Advisers. To get the number Obama used, economists at the council simply prorated their earlier estimates based on stimulus outlays as of April 21.

As we've reported before, the administration's estimates are based on a guess at how much tax cuts and government spending will make the economy grow.

We asked Nigel Gault, an economist with the forecasting firm IHS Global Insight, about what he made of the administration's latest assumptions.

"The only thing they have to go on is how much money has been actually spent," Gault said. But that doesn't tell the whole story. The feds count the money that goes out the door. They don't have close tabs on what happens after that, he said.

"You have to ask, 'Has the money been effectively spent? Has it actually been spent in purchasing goods and services or whatever it was supposed to be purchasing?'" Gault said.

Gault noted that funding for larger projects probably won't be spent all at once. If a city or county starts work on a project, it doesn't hire every worker immediately.

State officials have a closer look at what's happening on the ground; the picture there is hardly clear.

About 50 jobs have been created to work on two projects in the state of New York -- road work in one county and culvert repair in another, said Erin Duggan, a spokeswoman for the state. The billions of dollars put into the education budget also created or saved jobs, but that's difficult to measure.

Massachusetts last week issued notice to proceed on five transportation projects, said Cyndi Roy, spokeswoman for Gov. Deval Patrick. There are no employment numbers yet. Within state government there's been one stimulus-related hire so far -- the stimulus czar.

For the record, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says employment at the end of March stood at 133,019,000 jobs. That compares with 133,682,000 jobs at the end of February, the month Obama signed the stimulus bill.

In other words, a loss of 663,000 jobs. Employment as of April is set for release May 8.

The administration acknowledges its estimate does not reflect a net gain in jobs.

"It doesn't mean that employment has risen by 150,000," Thomas E. Gavin of the White House budget office said in an e-mail. "Rather, it means that employment is 150,000 jobs better than it otherwise would have been."

So, 150,000. Maybe. Maybe not.

Andrea Bernstein of WNYC radio in New York contributed to this report.

There’s no way to “fact check” this, so I’m not sure what the purpose of the article is.

The key point:

Net unemployment change from month to month is not the same thing as the relative change in this month’s unemployment, with respect to what it would have been had no action been taken.

Since nobody really knows what it would have been, if no stimulus had been passed, there’s no way to factually declare success or failure. Wouldn’t that make this piece an editorial?

Hey Mike have you ever thought that maybe the reason for the article is to show that the Obama administration isn’t as forthcoming and transparent as everyone thinks . As a matter of fact it sounds like horseshoes and hand grenades to me (as in close only counts in) And as far as no action goes how come the government has taken no action to indite those responsible for this situation ? Oh yea it might drag the political elitists in our governments smack into the middle of the prosecutions , so thats why its not going to happen, that and the fools who did this are the same fools trying to spend us out of this mess

Can you imagine the howls of laughter from the MSM if any GOP admin said something as patently silly as that it would create “or save” X number of jobs.  But since it was the Obamao Tse Tung administration, not a peep.  No challenge at all.  How can you ever prove that you’ve “saved” a job?  There is no metric.  It can’t be proved or disproved.  If there are 200 million jobs in the US today, they could say “look and what we’ve done.  We’ve saved 200 million jobs.”  And technically, they’d be correct.  By the same token, I could say that I saved those same 200 million jobs and I’d be just as correct.

lanerd,

You and I are basically saying the same thing: there’s no way to verify how many jobs were created or lost by any individual force.

If this article is meant to “show that the Obama administration isn’t as forthcoming and transparent as everyone thinks”, that’s fine, but in that case it should not have the words “Fact Checking” in the title.

“Fact Checking” is what a site like http://www.politifact.com/ does, which has nothing to do with editorializing or “drawing attention” to something.

Howard Switzer

May 2, 2009, 1:46 p.m.

Well, the facts were checked and it was found that there were no facts which was worth reporting.

If you believe OBAMA, God help you!  I have some ocean from property in Arizona.  It’s for sale and the price is right!  Now, I bet you cannot wait to buy it!

Howard Switzer

May 3, 2009, 1:20 p.m.

Obama is appealing to some good values but he is in a nest of vipers too and must move carefully.  I don’t think policy will change significantly until the people embrace cooperation and figure out what they really want. If they do that they might get Obama and congress to cooperate ...or get out of the way.  The flat dismissal of the opposition isn’t going to work, all need to be integrated into a new worldview. That means all of us.  We have a tremendous opportunity to co-create a sustainable new culture that values life over death. We should get started.